Momentum swinging Chuy's way

Good news for Chuy Garcia's campaign. Yesterday's first day of early voting had a record turnout. As of 5:15 p.m. Monday, there were a total of 7,914 voters across the city voting early -- the highest number ever recorded for the first day of early voting for a municipal election. I don't think the media smarties or pollsters were ready for this. Something's in the wind.

The campaign is now garnering national attention, especially within the national Democratic Party. Lots of previous Obama support and money is now flowing Chuy's way. More on this as we head towards 2016.

I don't doubt that  Chuy is still trailing Rahm in the polls. But the polls, at least the ones we mostly read about, like Ogden/Fry and the Tribune, seem to be trailing reality. And Chuy seems to have the big mo on his side with strong union and community support pouring in as real voting begins.

Yesterday he picked up national endorsements from the AFT and the Latino Victory Fund. The fund is part of Latino Victory Project, whose co-founders include businessman Henry Muñoz III and actress Eva Longria. Muñoz serves as finance chair for the Democratic Party and Longoria has been a major donor to President Barack Obama's campaigns. He was scheduled to meet with Newark Mayor Ras Baraka last night.

The latest Ogden/Fry poll has Chuy trailing by 16 points. Really? Remember, the Trib poll under-counted the Garcia vote by 18 points in the Feb. 24th election. O/F hasn't fared much better. They're both pretty accurate when it comes to polling white, older voters or those with land-line phones. But even there, their sampling is tiny, ie. they polled 12 people in Chuy's home ward in Little Village. In my brother Fred's ward, the pro-Chuy 35th, Fred represented about a third of the 11 voters polled (he was polled 3 times).

Those polls might look a lot different if O/F or the Trib bothered to poll Latino voters, the largest ethnic group in Chicago. More reliable polling of Latino voters shows overwhelming community support for Chuy. For example, a poll was conducted by Latino Decisions and co-sponsored by Latino Policy Forum, National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities and Univision Chicago.

Here's their survey:

In the election for Mayor of Chicago, will you vote for Rahm Emanuel or Jesus Chuy
Garcia?

Rahm Emanuel................................................................18
Jesus Chuy Garcia ...........................................................61
Don’t know......................................................................21

Sixty-five percent of potential Latino voters say no one from a campaign, party or community organization had asked them to vote or register to vote in the upcoming election. What a difference they would make.