Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Don't worry. Chicago violence problem 'only 1,500 people in a big city', says Rahm.

 Here's the updated numbers on the city's Memorial Day Weekend gun violence: 6 dead, 69 wounded. 
 The month of May saw 66 murders, 318 shootings, and 397 shooting victims in the city. CPD doesn't even count the shootings now happening with increased regularity out on the expressways since these are handled not by CPD, but by the State Police. 
So it turns out that all the gun violence in Chicago is driven by just 1,500 people. This out of nearly 3 million Chicagoans. Not bad, right?

That's according to Rahm and one of his top cops, John Escalante. And not only that, but Rahm knows exactly who the 1,500 are. He's even got a list. It's scientific. Based on the Culture of Calm model that former schools chief Ron Huberman back in 2010. And you know what happened to that, don't you?

The Huberman model of predictability. (Substance pic)
Huberman had claimed that it was possible to identify statistically 10,000 or so students who would most likely be either shot or shooters. It was his recipe for a preemptive strike against school violence without need to go more deeply into the roots of community and school violence. It was a total bust. So was Huberman.

So now Rahm's new list is down to 1,500. There's also no need for all those stop-and-frisks of mostly young black men on the south and west sides (250,000 S&Fs in just three months in 2014 with few arrests or guns found).

No need for the roundup and imprisonment of 18,000 young black men as Sen. Kirk (with Sen. Durbin by his side) has called for either.

Also, no mention by either Rahm or Escalante about the need to deal with the rising tide of youth joblessness, battered communities, lost social services, closed schools or easy access to guns.

Just round up the 1,500 hundred on the list, I guess,  and the violence problem is solved. Bada-bing, bada-boom. Right Rahm?
"It's a big city and it's a safe city," says Deputy Police Supt. John Escalante. "It's about 1,500 people driving this violence. I'm confident we'll be able to turn this around."
Safe city? For whom is it safe?

I must admit, that despite his reassurances, I'm worried. Not so much for my own safety (not many old, north-side, white guys are being shot) but for the city's youngsters. I have a grandson who goes to high school in the city and one of his 15-year-old schoolmates, Veronica Lopez, was shot and killed the other day, while riding in a car on Lake Shore Drive. Her killing was basically written off as "gang-related".

The Guardian reports:
At North-Grand high school on Tuesday, students returned to classes in blue and white clothes, the same colors Lopez was wearing when she was fatally shot while sitting in the passenger side of a car on Lakeshore Drive. They held a vigil for their fellow student, a few days before the end of the school year.
“I just want my baby back, she was everything,” Lopez’s mother, Diana Mercado, told reporters.
I don't know if Veronica was on Escalante's list or not.


  1. And since more than 1,000 have already been shot this year, the problem is on its way to being eliminated.

  2. Mike,

    Huberman is now selling some analytic tool to school districts to predict which teachers will be good.



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