Progressives split in Chicago race. Can they unite against Daley in a runoff?

With the first round of the mayoral election only a week away, things are starting to get hot and heavy. Progressives are split at least three ways (Toni Preckwinkle, Lori Lightfoot and Amara Enyia) and there's lots of vitriol back and forth among their camps..

Cook County party boss Toni Preckwinkle, with early support from many progressives, including the CTU and SEIU seemed like the clear front-runner a month ago.  The SEIU endorsements alone translated into roughly $2M in cash and in-kind contributions to Preckwinkle and nearly two dozen full-time campaign workers and upwards of 500 part-time volunteers.

Bill Daley, the man from JP Morgan and the candidate without a shred of progressive pretense, has replaced Rahm Emanuel as the darling of Chicago's 1%-ers. They've gone all in on Daley because, 1) they fear a takeover of the city by left-wing insurgents of the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez type and 2) his early lead in fundraising has them believing he's a for-real candidate, who can win.

The irony is that the modern notion of Democratic Partyinsurgency they're so afraid off, goes back to Harold Washington's victory over the Daley machine in 1983. But the latest attempt at building a progressive electoral coalition petered out after the collapse of the Bernie Sanders coalition in 2016 leading to the election of J.B. Pritzker as governor with no real progressive opponent.

The current internecine warfare over mayoral choices results from progressive groups not being able to unify around candidates for mayor and governor two years ago.

Instead, Rahm, their main electoral target with plummeting poll numbers following his Laquan McDonald cover-up and his school-closing debacle, pulled a slick move and abandoned the race altogether, before we had a chance to beat him. Even though #RahmResign was exactly what progressives had been demanding, it took many of them them by surprise, as Amisha Patel of the Grassroots Collaborative admitted on our show on February 1st.

Without Rahm as a unifying target, the door was left open for a gaggle of old-line, well-financed Democratic Party regulars to jump in and suck up all the money and organizational support.

Mendoza, Chico, Daley and Preckwinkle, none of whom dared enter the race while Rahm was still in it, all jumped in and immediately got the support and credibility from the party bosses and powerful donors who had been sitting on the sidelines. Daley was the biggest beneficiary with $7M in big-donor money. $2M coming directly from Republican billionaire Ken Griffin.

But the good news is that despite their swollen campaign coffers and TV advertising, none of the party machine regulars or great-white-hope alternatives (Paul Vallas & Gary McCarthy) have been able to create any excitement at the base and break from the pack.

If the vote were taken today, undecided or none-of-the-above would be the clear winner. According to most recent polling, the top 5, including underdog and party outlier, Lori Lightfoot are all with a few points of each other and any two could make it to the runoff, especially if this becomes a low-turnout election.

Lightfoot, who if elected, would become the city's first black, woman, lesbian mayor, is a clear underdog. But she's gained momentum and funding in recent weeks, especially after picking up the Sun-Times endorsement, while Preckwinkle and Mendoza have failed to improve their numbers since being connected to the Burke/Solis scandal.

Progressive Preckwinkle supporters, including those in the CTU and SEIU, who backed her early when union haters Rahm, Vallas and McCarthy seemed like her main opponents, probably did so more because they thought she would win rather than  because of fundamental political agreement. But now they're stuck with her even as her campaign falters and stumbles towards the finish line.

They fear a Lightfoot victory next week will lead to Daley's election in the finals and are training all their tactical guns and money on Lightfoot. For her part, Lightfoot sees Preckwinkle as part and parcel of the Burke/Berrios party machinery and has been gunning for her from the start.

Lori Lightfoot goes head to head with Toni Preckwinkle ally, Rep. Martwick: “You were a Joe Berrios surrogate for the entire campaign. You filed this bill [to appoint rather than elect assessor] to profit yourself. Who benefits from a system that’s not changed?” Lightfoot said.

Things really came to a head this week when State Rep. Rob Martwick, closely tied to Berrios and Preckwinkle, tried to disrupt a Lightfoot presser and ended up in a well-photographed head-to-head, David vs. Goliath confrontation with the candidate. Martwick is authoring a bill that would make the County Assessor an appointed, rather than elected position. The bill is obviously meant as payback against anti-machine guy, Fritz Kaegi who defeated Boss Berrios in the assessor's race.

But the damaging confrontation instead meant more bad press for Preckwinkle and the machine. Martwick had to back off, claiming that his bill was only meant as a "conversation starter" while Preckwinkle was forced to issue a joint statement with Kaegi, opposing the Martwick bill.

If all this has your head spinning as you enter the voting booth, join the crowd. Daley seems like the main beneficiary of all this mayhem in the progressive camps, if he and Preckwinkle wind up in a runoff. A Daley/Mendoza runoff is also possible if Preckwinkle continues to stumble.

Amara Enyia, running with big campaign donations from rappers Chance the Rapper and Kanye West, hopes to pick up support from young black activists and hard-left organizers. But she doesn't seem to be gaining traction as the race draws to a close.

But if somehow, Lightfoot pulls an upset on Feb. 26, the whole thing is up for grabs. The progressives only hope is for some kind of reconciliation between Lightfoot, Preckwinkle and Enyia supporters and that's not likely.

But in a close, low-turnout election, anything can happen.

Buckle up and vote.


I'll be AWOL for Friday's Hitting Left show when brother Fred tries to make some sense of all this with Chicago campaign strategist, Joanna Klonsky and Progressive Caucus leader, Ald. Scott Waguespack. But I'll be tuning in to WLPN 105.5 FM, via live streaming on www.lumpenradio.com from 11-noon CT. I hope you will join me. 

TOMORROW ON HITTING LEFT

Tomorrow on Hitting Left, I will be missing my co-host, brother Fred, who is off to New York where he's taking part in a 40-mile bike run across the boroughs. I know, right?

But joining me will be three of my favorite people, Harish Patel, Anne Emerson, and Ald. Scott Waguespack. Not too shabby.

Harish will be my co-host and my Klonsky brother for the day. He's an Indian-American, Muslim local and international social activist based in Chicago, a former candidate for state rep and the deputy director of the non-partisan policy group New America Chicago. I'm sure we will be hearing about his recent up-close and personal exchange last week with Barack Obama.

The two of us will be digging political dirt with Chicago political strategist Anne Emerson and the alderman from my own 32nd Ward, Scott Waguespack. Scott is an outspoken member of the city council's Progressive Caucus and a major thorn in side of Mayor 1%.

A stunning victory...We'll also hear from SEIU organizer Larry Alcoff on today's victory for Chicago's nursing home health care workers. At the 11th hour, just before what would have been the largest strike by nursing home health care workers in the U.S., a settlement was reached between the management of 103 nursing homes across the Chicago area and 10,000 SEIU members. Tune in and hear Larry and Brother Fred talk about the significance of this important labor struggle.

Obama to Patel...

Mr. Obama wanted to know why Harish Patel, a graduate of the University of Illinois at Chicago, had chosen to run for state representative last year as a young man. The answer, he replied, was in part that he did not see very many Patels in office and wanted to fix that. 

“There are lot of Patels in India,” Mr. Obama interjected, prompting more laughter from the audience. “There are lot more Patels than there are Obamas."

So tune in to hear the Klonsky Bros. Hitting Left on Friday at 11 a.m. CDT, on WLPN 105.5 F.M., streaming live at Lumpen Radio. If you have an IPhone, download the Lumpen Radio app. If you miss the show live, you can always listen to the podcast 

It's okay Rahm. You can come out now.

Much of the credit for Foxx victory belongs here. 2 Down, Rahm to go.

Will the mayor come out of hiding now that pal Hillary Clinton has left town?

She succeeded in avoiding Rahm long enough to narrowly squeak by Bernie Sanders with just 50.4% in her home state. It was a race she was picked to win by double digits and surely would have lost, at least the popular vote, if the race had gone another week or so.

With the Illinois victory, Clinton secures 68 delegates and Sanders pockets 64 delegates. Not too shabby, Bernie. Credit should also go to groups like Chicago Votes who have made it easier to register, even on election day. More credit, at least in my mind, goes to the anti-Trump protests at UIC last week, which more than any campaigning, generated a sense of urgency and passion for political struggle in thousands of young folks.

Of course, the popular vote doesn't mean as much in this state, since, win or lose, Hillary controls the 29 big-shot elected officials ("super delegates") who automatically get convention seats. In that sense the game was rigged from the start.

But congrats to Bernie and his team of Chicago progressives for running an amazingly close race and engaging thousands of new voters in what otherwise would have been a dull race. The movement for social justice comes out the better for it.

Voter turnout in Chicago was over 50%, according to the Chicago Election Board, and 26,000 new voters, mostly young registered to vote on Primary Day.

The biggest win yesterday belonged to Kim Foxx who rode to victory over police-murder cover-up artist Anita Alvarez, on the momentum of the Black Lives Matter movement. Two down, Rahm to go.

Proud of Harish I Patel and Jay Travis for fighting the good fight. Progressive first-time candidate Patel was not only battling political boss Dick Mell's machine dirty tricks, he also was abandoned by unions who decided to play it safe and throw in with the machine's Jaime Andrade. I hope they hold Andrade's feet to the fire.

The unions split on Travis, with AFSCME and SEIU throwing [our] money behind pension thief and school privatization (Stand For Children) incumbent Christian Mitchell. The CTU backed Jay.

Glad Andrea Zopp got clobbered. Voters remembered her role on the school board in support of Rahm's school closings in the black community and her role in the Byrd-Bennett/SUPES corruption scandal.

Theresa Mah & Chuy Garcia

Congrats to Juliana Stratton. Bye-bye to Rauner's puppy-dog Ken Dunkin. You knew he was toast when Obama pointed a finger at him and said, "We'll talk later."

Congrats to Theresa Mah for beating the machine in the 2nd Dist. State Rep race.

Congrats to Omar Oquino for beating the machine in the 2nd Dist. State Senate race.

And did you see? Sue Sadlowski Garza whipped Pope/Rahm in the Ward Committeeman race. This despite massive vote fraud (ballot box stuffing) by Pope's machine goons.

Kudos to Aaron Goldstein for kicking machine boss Mell in the ass in the committeeman race. I've been waiting 40 years for somebody to do it.

When I went to bed last night, Goldstein was ahead of Mell by 143 votes with 2 precincts left. But I'm not celebrating yet. Aaron better keep close eye on the ballot box. Remember Deb Mell was down by 26 votes to Tim Meegan last Feb's aldermanic election and then beat him by somehow "finding" enough Mell absentee votes.

The Machine does its best work after the polls close.

Now the struggle moves back to the streets, April First (no foolin') when CTU teachers hit the bricks in a citywide, one-day strike action.

Big turnout in Chicago will be good for progressives.

Sanders supporters packed the Auditorium Theater last night. 

Despite inclement weather, it looks like a big voter turnout today in ChiTown. I hope so. Big turnout can only help progressives like Sanders, Foxx, Travis, Patel, Stratton, and others. A tightening race between Bernie and Hillary should also drive turnout and more down-ticket votes.

Early voting has been high and the excitement generated by last Friday's huge anti-Trump protest at UIC will likely drive new and younger voters to the campaigns and to the polls today.

The Tribune reports that early voting in Chicago surpassed 130,000 by Sunday night. That's about 37% more than the previous high for a primary, the 81,690 votes cast before Election Day in 2008, when Obama and Clinton were running against each other. Biggest increases are reported in both black and Latino wards. Only five of 50 Chicago wards have had lower early voting turnouts this year than in 2008. More on those wards later.

Last night's massive turnout at the Bernie Sanders rally while Hillary Clinton's rally was half filled, bodes well for the progressives. Whoever gets the most votes, if the race is close, Sanders will come out the winner.

Two names not on the ballot will also have a major impact today's races, Rahm Emanuel and Laquan McDonald. Rahm, because in the wake of the the McDonald killing/cover-up, the Byrd-Bennet affair, and his closing of 50 schools, mainly in the black community, he's become politically toxic, the turd in the Democratic Party's swimming pool. Neither Bill nor Hillary will get near him, even though he's an early Hillary endorser who owes his political career and wealth largely to the Clintons.

Rep. Ken Dunkin is running his Rauner-financed TV ads targeting Rahm and not even mentioning his opponent, Juliana Stratton. Smart? Maybe. But I don't think it will work. Everyone knows Dunkin is a tool of the governor whose hate-ability rating is right up there with Rahm's. Plus, Pres. Obama has openly endorsed Stratton. Bye bye Dunkin.

As for Laquan McDonald, the very mention of his name sends chills down the spines of the mayor and State's Attorney Anita Alvarez. Check out today's Ward Room column by Carol Marin and Don Mosely. 

On South Stony Island Monday morning some signs reading “I love Laquan” and “Fire Anita” were seen being hauled away by a city Streets and Sanitation crew while other political signs were left standing. 

The shooting of the 17-year-old by a Chicago police officer in 2014 has in large part defined the race for Cook County State’s Attorney. It is also playing out in the Democratic presidential primary where the mere mention of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s name drew loud boos at Bernie Sanders’ Friday rally.

Harish Patel, running against Mell's guy in the 40th, deserves support

Democrat Harish Patel working Chicago's Northwest Side neighborhoods seeking signatures on his petitions to challenge ward-boss Dick Mell's machine guy Jaime Andrade in the 40th.   (Illinois Observer pic)

I like Harish Patel and hope the young social-justice activist and community organizer can upset Mell-machine guy Jaime Andrade in the 40th Dist in the same way that upstart Will Guzzardi beat the Berrios machine in the neighboring 39th in 2014.

David Ormsby, editor of the Illinois Observer writes:

Community organizer, entrepreneur, and Guzzardi ally Harish Patel is seeking to duplicate Guzzardi's success in the neighboring legislative district hoping to oust freshman State Rep. Jamie Andrade. Patel is modeling his campaign on Guzzardi's as much as possible. He hits multiple progressive talking points on the campaign trail: education reform, an elected school board, skepticism towards charter schools, boosting state-wide minimum wage, and embracing immigrant rights.

I'm hoping Harish, who opposes pension theft, gets the support he deserves from natural allies (I would think) the CTU and SEIU. If he does, look for a  Guzzardi-type upset.

If he and other progressives like Jay Travis (running in the 26th) don't get that support, we're in for more years of politics-as-usual in Springfield.